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Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, and each year at this time, we take a closer look at the forecast and the preparations needed to keep our communities safe. Looks like we may see some relief this season as forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predict a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic this year. 

Their forecast predicts between 8-14 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those storms just 3-6 are forecast to become named hurricanes and 1-3 may be major hurricanes. NOAA has a 70% confidence in this prediction and notes that an average hurricane season usually has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, three of which are usually major hurricanes. 

“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D. “These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”

Weather experts predict an El Nino this season which typically supports less tropical storms and hurricanes, due to changes in wind patterns high in the atmosphere over the Atlantic.  Although typically El Nino patterns do not lead to increased hurricanes it doesn’t completely stop the formation of strong storms in the Gulf. Gulf waters will still be warm and if a hurricane or tropical storm does develop it could be strong.  Because El Niño can affect rainfall, temperatures, and storm activity, meteorologists watch it closely when making seasonal weather forecasts, including hurricane season outlooks. For more information on steps you can take to prepare for hurricane season visit https://www.gfbinsurance.com/claims/safety-tips/hurricane.

Content provided by noaa.gov